Fastrack · Luxon on Course for Second Term, Coalition Talks Loom

New Zealand's general election ended Saturday without a clear winner. Preliminary results give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's governing coalition a slim projected majority.

67 projected seats for National, ACT and New Zealand First combined.
399,000 special votes remain uncounted, by the Electoral Commission's estimate.
29.3% of the party vote for National, down from 38% in 2023.
6% vote share sends newcomer Opportunity Party into parliament for the first time.

Why it matters: Special votes include ballots from overseas voters and people voting outside their electorate. They have tended to favor the left and shifted results in recent elections.

If the coalition loses its majority, Opportunity could decide which bloc governs.
Luxon ruled out working with Opportunity before the election.

The story so far

2 steps · since Nov 4

Nov 4New Zealand Votes in Tight Election as Kingmaker Looms9 sources
Nov 7Luxon on Course for Second Term, Coalition Talks LoomYou are hereLatest

How 22 sources split on this story

Source landscape

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Coverage by lean% of 22 sources

22 sources · 33 articles · 55% Center coverage

Where they split: Outlets report conflicting preliminary figures: Newsweek says Labour narrowly led the party vote, while Deutsche Welle and The Guardian say National did, and reports put parliament at either 130 or 131 seats.

Center coverage, 12 sources: The center sees a near tie between the two main parties, driven by cost-of-living and economic concerns.

Deutsche Welle3dNew Zealand election too close to call with 95% votes in Bloomberg1dNew Zealand’s PM Faces Deadline in Finance Minister Search BBC News2dNZ election: Can a new government win over disillusioned voters?France 242dNew Zealand election produces no clear winner as smaller parties make record gains Japan Times18hNew Zealand’s Luxon on course for second term, but weaker hand in coalition Associated Press2dNew Zealanders won't know for weeks who won the election as neither side secures clear victory Jerusalem Post3dNew Zealand election early count shows two main parties near deadlocked Newsweek2dNew Zealand Election Too Close to Call as Center-Right Bloc Holds Edge NPR1dNo clear winner in New Zealand election, as leaders prepare for weeks of talks Sky News2dNew Zealand election 'too close to call' with conservative coalition on brink of slim majority The Hill2dNew Zealanders won’t know for weeks who won the election as neither side secures clear victory Times of Israel2dNew Zealand’s future unclear as initial vote count gives coalition razor-thin lead

Left coverage, 6 sources: The left sees a weakened first-term government at risk of losing power amid voter frustration over living costs and health care.

CNN2dNew Zealand in political limbo after knife-edge election The Guardian21hNew Zealand’s Opportunity party takes aim at populist politics on historic first day in parliament The Boston Globe2dNew Zealanders won’t know for weeks who won the election Al Jazeera3dGoverning party leads in New Zealand’s knife-edge vote, early results The Independent2dNew Zealanders won't know for weeks who won the election as neither side secures clear victory The Washington Post2dNew Zealand’s election results are too close to call

Right coverage, 4 sources: The right sees the center-right bloc holding an edge, with the outcome awaiting the final count.

Daily Mail2dNew Zealand election cliffhanger with major parties left deadlocked but new centrist Opportunity party could be kingmakers NTD2dNew Zealand Election First Count Ends With 2 Main Parties Nearly Deadlocked The Washington Times3dConservative bloc takes a slim lead in New Zealand election that's still too close to call Wall Street Journal3dNew Zealand’s Conservatives Narrowly Lead in Election

What’s next: The Electoral Commission aims to declare official results on Nov. 27. Caretaker conventions apply until a government forms.

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said she would negotiate first with the party winning the most seats.
Several senior National lawmakers, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, lost their seats.
Will special votes cost the coalition its majority?
If so, would Luxon reverse his refusal to work with Opportunity?
Would stronger results for ACT and New Zealand First reshape coalition policy?