Fastrack · Billionaires Pour Record $612 Million Into California Wealth Tax Fight

Support for Proposition 40, California's proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaires' assets, has fallen below 50% in two new polls. Voters decide Nov. 3.

50% of likely voters oppose it and 42% support it, per Berkeley IGS.
52% oppose and 46% support it in a Public Policy Institute poll.
$368 million has been raised against the measure, versus $36 million for it.
$100 billion over five years is the revenue estimate from supporters.

Why it matters: The measure, written by the SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West union, would fund Medi-Cal after federal cuts. It would apply to billionaires living in California as of Jan. 1, 2026.

$30 billion is the net estimate from economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh.
Their estimate counts lost future income tax revenue from wealthy residents who leave.

The story so far

5 steps · since Oct 21

Oct 21Stanford Economists Warn Billionaire Flight Could Erase Wealth Tax Gains14 sources
Oct 25Prop 40 Wealth Tax Expected to Fail on Nov. 3 Ballot15 sources
Oct 28Billionaires Pour Record $612 Million Into California Wealth Tax FightYou are here
Nov 4California Voters Reject Billionaire Wealth Tax57 sources
Nov 8California Voters Reject Billionaire Tax Measure20 sourcesLatest

How 12 sources split on this story

Source landscape

Factuality

High

Mixed

Low

Strong LeftLeftLean LeftCenterLean RightRightStrong Right

Political Bias

Coverage by lean% of 12 sources

12 sources · 16 articles · 50% Left coverage

Where they split: The core dispute is whether a one-time tax would drive billionaires from California, cutting future revenue, or whether opposition spending is overriding voters' will.

Center1 source

Bloomberg1w+California's Prop 40 Architects Bet Now Is Time for Wealth Tax

Left coverage, 6 sources: The left frames the fight as billionaire spending overwhelming a popular tax meant to replace Republican health cuts.

The Nation1w+Billionaires or Democracy Los Angeles Times1w+California Prop. 3 last-minute guide: The other tax-the-rich measure Mother Jones1w+California billionaires may well prevail in their quest to block a state wealth tax The Atlantic1w+A Cynical Ploy to Block California’s Wealth Tax The New York Times1w+California Is Voting on the Wrong Wealth Tax Time1w+Taxing Wealth Makes Sense, But It Won’t Fix Our Economy

Right coverage, 5 sources: The right frames the tax as likely to drive the wealthy away and raise far less than promised.

ZeroHedge1w+California's Billionaire Tax May Cost More Than It Raises, Reports Find City Journal1w+Democrats’ Wealth-Tax Proposals Won’t End on Election Day New York Post1w+California’s Prop. 3 tax on top earners holds strong days before election, new poll shows American Greatness1w+California Billionaires Pour Record $612 Million Into Elections to Fight Wealth Tax › American Greatness National Review1w+California’s Act of Fiscal Self-Sabotage

What’s next: Voters decide Proposition 40 on Nov. 3, alongside Propositions 41 and 42, which would nullify it if either gets more votes.

Similar wealth tax bills in Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland and Washington could return next session.
How many billionaires have actually left California or reduced their ties because of the tax?
Would a one-time tax survive the legal challenges opponents expect?
Will a defeat end state wealth tax efforts or move them elsewhere?