Bengals Force 4 Turnovers to Beat Buccaneers 33-27.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals open the 2026 NFL season at home against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite.
- Cincinnati finished 6-11 in 2025 after Burrow's toe injury cost him nine games.
- Tampa Bay went 8-9 last season, missing the playoffs after a 6-2 start.
- Bengals second-year defensive lineman Shemar Stewart is among Cincinnati's inactive players.
- Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan and running back Sean Tucker are both listed as inactive.
Why it matters: Cincinnati's defense ranked 31st in total yards allowed and 30th in scoring defense in 2025, prompting a significant overhaul. The Bengals added defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II and edge rusher Boye Mafe, among others.
- Tampa Bay opens without wide receiver Mike Evans, who signed with San Francisco, for the first time since 2013.
- Second-year receiver Emeka Egbuka steps into a larger role for the Buccaneers; he practiced fully this week despite a toe injury.
How 10 sources split on this story
Where they split: Coverage agrees Cincinnati is favored, but analysts disagree on whether Tampa Bay's offense — now without Evans and two key skill players — can keep pace with Cincinnati's rebuilt unit.
Center coverage, 6 sources: The center emphasizes the broader narrative of two playoff-hungry teams with retooled rosters, presenting multiple analyst picks and treating the game as a genuine toss-up worth watching.
USA Today3dBaker Mayfield loses three fumbles in Week 1
Heavy2dBengals WR Ja’Marr Chase Called Out After Buccaneers WinCECincinnati Enquirer2dFour lessons learned from Bengals win vs. BuccaneersPenPennLive3dWhere to watch Browns vs. Jaguars NFL Week 1 game today on free streams, TVWNCWFLA News Channel 82dBucs with Bowles: Tampa Bay fumbles four times to lose season opener at Cincinnati
Reuters3dBengals capitalize on clumsy Buccaneers' 4 fumbles to open '26 with winLeft coverage, 2 sources: The left focuses on data-driven simulations and injury-adjusted projections, foregrounding the doubtful status of Tampa Bay skill players as a decisive factor in the outcome.
Right coverage, 2 sources: The right frames the game as a high-stakes, do-or-die moment for both franchises, leading with Burrow's own urgency quote and emphasizing personal pressure over tactical analysis.
What’s next: Dimers' model, based on 10,000 simulations, gives Cincinnati a 66% chance of winning.
- Three of four USA Today analysts predict a Bengals win; one projects a Buccaneers upset.
- Can Cincinnati's rebuilt defense sustain improvement beyond a single Week 1 performance?
- How much does the absence of McMillan and Tucker limit Tampa Bay's offensive ceiling?
- Will Baker Mayfield, without a long-term contract, finally beat Burrow for the first time?