Pappas Advances to Face Sununu in Senate Race.

New Hampshire holds its Senate primary Tuesday, with Rep. Chris Pappas the expected Democratic nominee to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. General election polls show the race a statistical tie.

• 47% to 34%: Pappas' lead over Manzur in the latest UNH poll.
• 98% chance of winning: Pappas' odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
• 45% to 43%: Sununu's lead over Pappas in the same UNH general election poll.
• New Hampshire backed Harris by roughly 3 points in 2024.

Why it matters: Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority. Losing New Hampshire would erase a hard-fought pickup elsewhere.

• Sununu served in the Senate 2003–2009 and comes from a family that produced two New Hampshire governors.
• Kathy Sullivan, former New Hampshire Democratic Party chair, said national Democratic spending has not prioritized the state.

How 43 sources split on this story

Where they split: The core dispute is whether Pappas is a strong enough general election candidate: his campaign has sent fundraising emails saying 'We're losing,' while prediction markets and several polls still favor him.

What’s next: Tuesday's primary results set the general election matchup.

• No public polls have tested Manzur against Sununu in a general election.
• Would Manzur, if she won the primary, be more or less competitive than Pappas against Sununu in November?
• Will national Democratic outside spending increase in New Hampshire before Election Day?